AGP Executive Report

Sahel Trade Corridors: The Port of Lomé is sending an A2PL delegation to Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali to deepen ties and push Lomé’s corridor services into landlocked markets. Aviation Safety: Nigeria’s Tinubu confirmed 32 deaths after a Nigerian Air Force ATR-42 crash in Ondo State, with investigations ordered. Anti-Corruption (Transport/Policing): South Africa’s IDAC provisionally withdrew a R191m SAPS “blue lights” corruption case against Khomotso Phahlane and co-accused, with the matter set to be re-enrolled. Maritime & Logistics Training: Madagascar hosted a regional maritime search-and-rescue training supported by MSARC, bringing professionals from eight countries to strengthen coordination at sea. Energy & Power for Industry: Kenya-based firms added 72,800kW of solar for self-use, showing continued captive power growth. Security Funding Pressure: The MNJTF says it’s short on money as Lake Chad violence rises, warning logistics and equipment gaps could undermine operations. Used Vehicle Imports (Ghana): Ghana Standards Authority suspended pre-shipment inspection for imported used vehicles, with a new date to follow. Health Watch (Global): Russia’s suspected plague death in Siberia triggered quarantines and monitoring, with U.S. officials saying they’re watching closely.

Port & Corridor Watch: Dar es Salaam Port says transit cargo jumped 17% to 14.61m tonnes in 2025/26, led by DRC (+30%) and Rwanda (+24%), underscoring Tanzania’s role in East Africa’s trade-corridor race. Road Disruptions: Liberia’s Ganta–Saclepea highway is effectively shut after heavy rains overwhelmed works and bridges, leaving travelers stranded and commerce stalled. Public Transport Expansion: Liberia’s NTA plans to extend bus services into River Cess and Sinoe counties during the dry season, aiming for wider national coverage. Safety & Mobility: Johannesburg’s Metrobus marks 1,609 fatality-free days and launches a women-focused safety push during Transport Month amid GBV concerns. Aviation Ops Update: Kuwait International Airport is open but transit services remain suspended; flights run via Terminals 4 and 5 only. Energy Cost Pressure: South Africa faces another fuel hit, with 95-octane petrol expected to break R30/litre, raising transport costs for households. Regional Integration Push: AU officials urge faster integration of transport, energy and digital infrastructure, citing Tanzania’s rail and port upgrades to boost trade.

Port & Logistics: South Africa’s Transport Minister Barbara Creecy pressed ICTSI over Durban Gateway Terminal delays, saying average vessel anchorage time has nearly doubled to about six days since ICTSI took over, with teething problems tied to terminal systems and equipment refurbishment. Road Safety: South Africa set a target to cut road fatalities by 50% by 2030 (45% by 2029), backed by a revised 2026–2030 road safety strategy using a “safe system” approach and proposed zero alcohol limits for drivers. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Egypt and South Africa agreed to deepen economic cooperation at the Alamein Africa Forum, focusing on infrastructure, energy, transport and industry, including a new Egyptian–South African Business Council. Transport Policy & Elections: South Africa’s inter-ministerial committee reported progress toward the 4 November 2026 local government elections, stressing coordination as the deadline nears. Maritime Safety: South Africa confirmed a fatal man-overboard incident off Mossel Bay involving the uMkhuseli emergency towing vessel, with three bodies recovered and two crew still missing as SAMSA begins preliminary investigations. Conflict & Disruption: Pro-government forces took control of Mekelle in Ethiopia’s Tigray, forcing the TPLF-led opposition to retreat and relocate temporarily—another potential shock to regional stability and movement.

Port & Shipping: Kenya Ports Authority says Lamu hit a new container milestone as Iranian-flagged MV Hamouna docked and discharged about 5,200 TEUs (from a 14,500-TEU cargo), with transshipment via feeder vessels—another sign Lamu is becoming a regional maritime hub. Maritime Trade Links: Qatar’s ports handled 648,164 TEUs in Jan–Sep 2026, with 1,277 vessel calls, underscoring the scale of Gulf-to-Africa logistics. Industrial & Regional Trade: COMESA chairmanship is set to open an industrial window for Bulawayo, aiming to boost manufacturing and value chains for a 640m+ regional market. Electric Mobility: Africa E-Mobility Week & Forum 2026 urged faster investment and regional cooperation to turn EV policy into action—local EV value chains, charging readiness, finance, and skills. Road Safety: Kenya road crash killed at least 17 Catholic pilgrims near Salama as a truck overtaking maneuver went wrong; authorities flagged the stretch as a “black spot.” Fuel & Transport Costs: South Africa faces projected fuel price hikes from Oct 7, with petrol likely to break R30/litre. Energy & Supply Disruption: South Sudan warns Sudan’s war is choking oil exports via Port Sudan, cutting output and threatening the economy.

Road Safety Crisis: Nigeria’s Plateau state saw a multi-vehicle crash on the Hawan Kibo-Jos route that killed 20, with brake failure cited by officials. Pilgrims Hit Hard: Kenya’s Nairobi–Mombasa highway crash in Salama killed 17 pilgrims after a failed overtaking attempt triggered a chain collision. Maritime Security & Trade: Ghana’s Danish ambassador highlighted a 10-year Ghana–Denmark maritime partnership that helped reduce piracy incidents in Gulf of Guinea waters. Energy Logistics Disruption: Gabon announced a gradual return to normal at Greater Libreville gas stations from Sunday after diesel shortages, citing low distributor stocks and an expected fuel shipment. Urban Planning for Transport Demand: Egypt’s PM urged African cities to turn rapid urban growth into job-creating engines, pointing to integrated planning and infrastructure models. Politics & Mobility Costs: Nigeria’s ADC campaign rejected an Economist forecast on the 2027 election, arguing “a forecast is not a verdict,” amid ongoing public anger over living costs.

Maritime & Ports: India’s INS Tarkash has departed Kenya’s Mombasa after a successful port visit, including a PASSEX exercise with the Kenya Navy to boost interoperability and maritime security. Logistics & Trade: DHL has named Morocco a priority “Geographic Tailwinds” market, pointing to nearshoring, corridor shifts and Morocco’s growing industrial and logistics capacity. Energy & Power for Industry: South Africa’s Eskom is offering tariff relief to cryptocurrency miners and other flexible-load customers to use excess power, aiming to manage surplus capacity as renewables come on stream. Transport Costs & Inflation: South Africa faces renewed fuel-driven inflation pressure, with economists warning petrol and diesel could rise again and trigger another repo-rate hike. Infrastructure Delivery: Kenya’s KETRACO has switched on a new 132kV line linking Nanyuki and Rumuruti to cut power losses and improve reliability for irrigation, farming and businesses. Civic Tech & Mobility: CSOs in northern Nigeria are calling for action after reports of unexplained TikTok disruption, affecting livelihoods and information access. Agriculture & Rural Supply Chains: Ghana is expanding rice irrigation with a new facility adding 175 hectares for year-round cultivation, targeting reduced import dependence.

Fuel Shock & Transport Affordability: South Africa’s petrol is set to break R30 a litre as prices rise again, with diesel also expected to hit records; Transport Minister Barbara Creecy says government is pushing to make public transport more affordable amid supply-chain and geopolitical pressure. Rail & Logistics Expansion: Tanzania is moving to cut vessel times as it expands its role in African trade, while South Africa’s Prasa plans major expansion of the rail network. Nigeria Logistics Deal: DP World and TGI Group are expanding Nigeria logistics, with TGI expected to become a shareholder in DP World Logistics Limited (subject to approval) as they explore broader integrated supply-chain services. Automotive Investment Push: South Africa’s Parks Tau and others are backing the Africa Automotive Investment Forum, focused on building automotive corridors, financing and AfCFTA-linked value chains. Regional Trade & Investment: Tanzania is seeking deeper investment ties with Italian firms to shift from selling to producing, processing and exporting across Africa and global markets. Air Cargo Demand: IATA reports Africa’s air cargo demand rising in August as capacity expands. Education & Mobility Systems: WAEC appoints Nigerian Amos Dangut as Registrar/CEO, underscoring continued regional coordination in exams and certification.

Port Performance Boost: Dar es Salaam is cutting vessel waiting and handling times while pushing record throughput, strengthening Tanzania’s role as an Indian Ocean gateway for trade into Central, Eastern and Southern Africa. Manufacturing Push: Tanzania’s Export Processing Zone data shows China as the biggest foreign investor under the scheme, with manufacturing projects and job creation rising—success now hinges on turning capital into local production and skills. Trade & Transport Policy: Nigeria’s CNG low-fare rollout is still stalling in several states, with commuters reporting unchanged or higher fares amid gaps in buses, refuelling and conversion centres. Energy for Industry: Nigeria plans “energy zones” to support 24/7 power in key industrial corridors, aiming to unlock demand and improve reliability. Road Safety Focus: Johannesburg DUI enforcement is heavily concentrated in evening hours, with data showing most arrests between 18:00 and 23:59—fueling calls for year-round prevention. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: OPSWAT and Redington will expand protection of critical infrastructure across Middle East, Türkiye, Africa and the CIS, targeting cyber risks to defence, energy and banking. Mining Logistics Watch: South Africa’s manganese exporters are debating corridor and port routing, with MPC stressing producers choose routes based on logistics and commercial needs. Regional Security: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties as northern conflict escalates, raising risks for cross-border stability and movement.

East Africa Energy Infrastructure: Tanzania and Uganda handed over the proposed refined petroleum products site at Chongoleani, Tanga, to Worley Consulting for feasibility studies—soil tests, environmental work and preliminary designs—aimed at strengthening fuel security and adding value to EACOP crude flows. Aviation Expansion: Royal Air Maroc grew its fleet to 70 aircraft and targets 74 by end-2026, 88 in 2027 and 200 by 2037 as Casablanca cements its hub role. Airline M&A: Air France-KLM and Lufthansa submitted final bids for at least 44.9% of Portugal’s TAP, with a mid-October decision expected. Airport Capacity Pressure: Egypt’s push to expand Cairo International Airport is tied to fast-rising passenger demand and growing airline capacity. Shipping Connectivity: UNCTAD data shows China widening its lead in liner-shipping connectivity, while Egypt tops Africa. Red Sea Risk: Analysts warn Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea disruptions are reshaping Ethiopia’s logistics routes and costs. Health Scorecards (Logistics-adjacent): Ghana expanded its community scorecard platform to track HIV and TB indicators across CHPS zones. Road/Transport Politics (Nigeria): Atiku’s camp renewed calls for Tinubu’s promised nationwide transport fare cuts to start immediately.

East Africa Fuel Logistics: Kenya has activated a transit route for Rwanda’s petroleum imports via the Port of Mombasa, receiving a maiden 40,000-tonne diesel and petrol shipment at Kipevu Oil Terminal 2 under an EAC energy cooperation framework. Maritime Trade Links: Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) will launch a new weekly Mombasa–Nhava Sheva service next month, starting with 2,500 TEUs and running through a consortium with major global carriers. Mega-Refinery Momentum: African leaders joined Dangote and Kenya’s Ruto to break ground on the $16bn East Africa refinery in Lamu, with construction aimed at deepening regional refining capacity and cutting fuel import dependence. Aviation Cost Pressure: Taiwan’s aviation fuel surcharge for international flights rises from Oct. 7 as international fuel prices climb, affecting both short- and long-haul routes. Road Transport Watch: South Africa’s e-Panic Button app faces backlash after reports of exposed user data, with lawmakers calling it a serious failure that could cost lives.

Dangote Lamu Refinery Security: Kenya’s Lamu groundbreaking for Dangote’s $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery is drawing heavy security with sniffer dogs and screening for dignitaries, as the project targets completion by 2030 and aims to cut East Africa’s fuel import dependence. Dangote Engineering Contracts: Early winners include India’s EIL (project management and EPCM) and Honeywell (process technologies and digital solutions), with claims the Kenya design could shorten schedules by about two years. Rail Corridor Push (Cameroon): Camrail has been told to speed up contract finalization for the Douala–N’Djamena corridor rail component as the World Bank presses to overcome delays. Air Cargo & Passenger Demand: IATA reports African air cargo capacity rose in August while global passenger demand slipped 0.8%, a mixed signal for logistics planning. Identity & Fraud Risk: Troy Group warns document fraudsters increasingly target birth-certificate “personalization” data, pushing demand for stronger issuance controls. Road Fuel Convoys (Mali): A convoy of 900 fuel tankers entered Bamako under military escort, highlighting how insecurity is reshaping West African fuel logistics. EU Deportation “Return Hubs”: Greece and four EU partners plan Africa-based “open” return hubs to start in 2027, keeping responsibility with EU states amid legal controversy.

Red Sea Security: The EU is moving toward observer status in a Saudi-led maritime coalition as Houthi attacks keep the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively blocked, threatening global shipping and European logistics. Rail & Ports: South Africa’s rail fraud case over the alleged sale of 42km of Eastern Cape state track drags on in court, while Kenya Railways pushes a new Nairobi–Talanta Sports City rail link to ease event congestion. East Africa Energy: Kenya’s Lamu East Africa Oil Refinery groundbreaking draws multiple heads of state, despite local land-right protests and court action. Logistics & Trade: Zimbabwe’s August trade surplus jumps 64.5% on export growth, led by semi-manufactured gold and minerals. Road Safety & Transport Crime: A Zimbabwe court hears a case involving a truck driver accused of kidnapping a passenger and driving while she clung to the car door. Mining Equipment: SANY launches a hybrid mining truck aimed at cutting diesel costs and emissions. Policy & Compliance: South Africa’s diesel refund registration is being modernised on eFiling, requiring farmers to re-register for future claims. GBV Response: South Africa’s Ramaphosa orders a national review of stalled GBV cases, forensic backlogs, and municipal safety audits.

Ports & Logistics Reform (South Africa): Cabinet has approved the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) to split from Transnet and operate as a standalone landlord, with room to bring in a local development finance institution as a minority equity partner—aimed at speeding logistics reforms and port investment. Air & Regional Connectivity: Guyana says it’s ready to finalise talks with international airlines to use CJIA Terminal 2 as a global hub, including links between West Africa, South America and the Caribbean, plus plans for an aviation training centre. Oil & Infrastructure (East Africa): Aliko Dangote has arrived in Lamu ahead of the East Africa Oil Refinery groundbreaking, while Kenya’s Mbadi says Kenya could increase its refinery stake beyond 10% if neighbours opt out. Energy Costs & Transport Pressure: Reports highlight rising diesel prices in Nigeria and Namibia, warning that higher fuel costs ripple into road freight, food and construction prices. Aviation/Trade: China’s zero-tariff scheme is boosting South Africa’s bulk exports through Port of Ngqura, lifting throughput for commodities like chrome, magnetite, iron ore and corn. Security & Safety (Road/Events): Zimbabwe investigated a fan death at the National Sports Stadium after a police water-cannon truck incident. Gender-Based Violence (Public Safety): South Africa’s Ramaphosa announced time-bound GBVF measures, including a national recovery operation for unresolved cases.

Red Sea shipping shock: A Kenya Ship Agents Association CEO says the Red Sea crisis is forcing reroutes and security pacts, with about 70–80% of regional cargo shifting away from key chokepoints like Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, raising freight and insurance costs. Maritime security escalation: US officials warn Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis and Somalia’s Al-Shabaab are deepening cooperation, potentially expanding Al-Shabaab capabilities and threatening Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade routes. Dangote refinery legal delay: Kenya’s court ordered a pause on construction of Aliko Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery, with a hearing set for Oct 14 after residents challenged land rights and environmental compliance. Aviation access tightened: The UK introduced a mandatory airport transit visa for nine West African nations including Senegal, even for airside plane changes, complicating regional mobility. Regional trade push: COMESA summit preparations in Zimbabwe are prompting SMEs to plug into regional manufacturing and procurement networks, not just export finished goods. Youth jobs in Tanzania: Tanzania is expanding paid apprenticeships at public institutions (10,000 annually) alongside foreign labour market access to tackle youth unemployment. Air capacity uptick: OAG data shows airlines serving Africa’s top markets scheduled 13.89m seats in Sept 2026, up year-on-year.

Red Sea Shipping Risk: A new assessment warns Bab el-Mandeb is shifting from disruption risk to possible selective or lasting pressure on shipping, with Djibouti and Egypt most exposed and Ethiopia hit indirectly via the Djibouti corridor. Humanitarian Evacuation: The ICRC evacuated 161 people from Ethiopia’s conflict-torn Tigray to Afar by bus, including aviation and AU monitors, as tensions rise. Ethiopia Security Spillover: Ethiopia’s army alleges Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt back rebels as fighting spreads and TPLF-linked forces capture strategic towns in Afar. Port & Trade Infrastructure: Nigeria’s Ogun State says construction on the $7bn Gateway Deep Sea Port with DP World will start in November, targeting near-completion in 2.5 years. Road Corridor Deal: Morocco and Mauritania signed a framework to rehabilitate and expand the El Guerguerat–Nouakchott road, strengthening a North-West Africa land corridor. Aviation Demand: FAAN says Nigeria’s passenger market is growing fastest in Africa, with 18.8m passengers in 2025 and rising seat capacity into 2026. Logistics Digitisation: Ricoh highlights how digital proof-of-delivery and document trails can speed compliance and payment in African logistics. ASF Controls: Cebu tightens African swine fever controls, adding checkpoints and restricting pork sourcing to curb spread.

Port & Refining Push (Kenya): Kenya’s Port of Lamu received heavy machinery for Dangote’s East Africa refinery as President Ruto prepares to ground-break the $16bn project, aimed at boosting regional fuel supply via the LAPSSET corridor. Maritime Security (Liberia–India): Liberia and India launched a UN-backed “Group of Friends” on safety and security of shipping and seafarers, linking crew protection to Liberia’s flag and seafarer workforce interests. Road & Traffic Disruption (Kenya): Nairobi’s KURA ordered a temporary closure of the Mlolongo–Kamulu Quarry Road (Oct 1–Dec 1, 2026) with diversion routes, while extending another Eldoret Road shutdown. Gas & CNG Expansion (Nigeria): Ardova’s consortium agreed to buy 100% of Powergas, expanding CNG compression and road-based “virtual pipeline” distribution with plans for new refuelling sites. Ports Modernisation (Nigeria): FG approved upgrades for Onne, Rivers, Delta and Calabar ports to decongest Lagos and improve cargo handling and turnaround times. Aviation Capacity Debate (Nigeria): Experts questioned FAAN’s 18.8m passenger growth claim, arguing it covers 23 federal airports and needs stronger benchmarking against major African hubs. Clean Fuels & Air Quality (South Africa): Research warns outdated vehicle emission standards are driving severe pollution harms, urging emission updates alongside the July 2027 Clean Fuels Two rollout. Industrial Policy (South Africa): dtic called for coordinated interventions across the stainless steel value chain, including a Steel Roadmap focus on beneficiation and exports.