AGP Executive Report

Fuel Shock & Transport Affordability: South Africa’s petrol is set to break R30 a litre as prices rise again, with diesel also expected to hit records; Transport Minister Barbara Creecy says government is pushing to make public transport more affordable amid supply-chain and geopolitical pressure. Rail & Logistics Expansion: Tanzania is moving to cut vessel times as it expands its role in African trade, while South Africa’s Prasa plans major expansion of the rail network. Nigeria Logistics Deal: DP World and TGI Group are expanding Nigeria logistics, with TGI expected to become a shareholder in DP World Logistics Limited (subject to approval) as they explore broader integrated supply-chain services. Automotive Investment Push: South Africa’s Parks Tau and others are backing the Africa Automotive Investment Forum, focused on building automotive corridors, financing and AfCFTA-linked value chains. Regional Trade & Investment: Tanzania is seeking deeper investment ties with Italian firms to shift from selling to producing, processing and exporting across Africa and global markets. Air Cargo Demand: IATA reports Africa’s air cargo demand rising in August as capacity expands. Education & Mobility Systems: WAEC appoints Nigerian Amos Dangut as Registrar/CEO, underscoring continued regional coordination in exams and certification.

Port Performance Boost: Dar es Salaam is cutting vessel waiting and handling times while pushing record throughput, strengthening Tanzania’s role as an Indian Ocean gateway for trade into Central, Eastern and Southern Africa. Manufacturing Push: Tanzania’s Export Processing Zone data shows China as the biggest foreign investor under the scheme, with manufacturing projects and job creation rising—success now hinges on turning capital into local production and skills. Trade & Transport Policy: Nigeria’s CNG low-fare rollout is still stalling in several states, with commuters reporting unchanged or higher fares amid gaps in buses, refuelling and conversion centres. Energy for Industry: Nigeria plans “energy zones” to support 24/7 power in key industrial corridors, aiming to unlock demand and improve reliability. Road Safety Focus: Johannesburg DUI enforcement is heavily concentrated in evening hours, with data showing most arrests between 18:00 and 23:59—fueling calls for year-round prevention. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: OPSWAT and Redington will expand protection of critical infrastructure across Middle East, Türkiye, Africa and the CIS, targeting cyber risks to defence, energy and banking. Mining Logistics Watch: South Africa’s manganese exporters are debating corridor and port routing, with MPC stressing producers choose routes based on logistics and commercial needs. Regional Security: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties as northern conflict escalates, raising risks for cross-border stability and movement.

East Africa Energy Infrastructure: Tanzania and Uganda handed over the proposed refined petroleum products site at Chongoleani, Tanga, to Worley Consulting for feasibility studies—soil tests, environmental work and preliminary designs—aimed at strengthening fuel security and adding value to EACOP crude flows. Aviation Expansion: Royal Air Maroc grew its fleet to 70 aircraft and targets 74 by end-2026, 88 in 2027 and 200 by 2037 as Casablanca cements its hub role. Airline M&A: Air France-KLM and Lufthansa submitted final bids for at least 44.9% of Portugal’s TAP, with a mid-October decision expected. Airport Capacity Pressure: Egypt’s push to expand Cairo International Airport is tied to fast-rising passenger demand and growing airline capacity. Shipping Connectivity: UNCTAD data shows China widening its lead in liner-shipping connectivity, while Egypt tops Africa. Red Sea Risk: Analysts warn Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea disruptions are reshaping Ethiopia’s logistics routes and costs. Health Scorecards (Logistics-adjacent): Ghana expanded its community scorecard platform to track HIV and TB indicators across CHPS zones. Road/Transport Politics (Nigeria): Atiku’s camp renewed calls for Tinubu’s promised nationwide transport fare cuts to start immediately.

East Africa Fuel Logistics: Kenya has activated a transit route for Rwanda’s petroleum imports via the Port of Mombasa, receiving a maiden 40,000-tonne diesel and petrol shipment at Kipevu Oil Terminal 2 under an EAC energy cooperation framework. Maritime Trade Links: Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) will launch a new weekly Mombasa–Nhava Sheva service next month, starting with 2,500 TEUs and running through a consortium with major global carriers. Mega-Refinery Momentum: African leaders joined Dangote and Kenya’s Ruto to break ground on the $16bn East Africa refinery in Lamu, with construction aimed at deepening regional refining capacity and cutting fuel import dependence. Aviation Cost Pressure: Taiwan’s aviation fuel surcharge for international flights rises from Oct. 7 as international fuel prices climb, affecting both short- and long-haul routes. Road Transport Watch: South Africa’s e-Panic Button app faces backlash after reports of exposed user data, with lawmakers calling it a serious failure that could cost lives.

Dangote Lamu Refinery Security: Kenya’s Lamu groundbreaking for Dangote’s $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery is drawing heavy security with sniffer dogs and screening for dignitaries, as the project targets completion by 2030 and aims to cut East Africa’s fuel import dependence. Dangote Engineering Contracts: Early winners include India’s EIL (project management and EPCM) and Honeywell (process technologies and digital solutions), with claims the Kenya design could shorten schedules by about two years. Rail Corridor Push (Cameroon): Camrail has been told to speed up contract finalization for the Douala–N’Djamena corridor rail component as the World Bank presses to overcome delays. Air Cargo & Passenger Demand: IATA reports African air cargo capacity rose in August while global passenger demand slipped 0.8%, a mixed signal for logistics planning. Identity & Fraud Risk: Troy Group warns document fraudsters increasingly target birth-certificate “personalization” data, pushing demand for stronger issuance controls. Road Fuel Convoys (Mali): A convoy of 900 fuel tankers entered Bamako under military escort, highlighting how insecurity is reshaping West African fuel logistics. EU Deportation “Return Hubs”: Greece and four EU partners plan Africa-based “open” return hubs to start in 2027, keeping responsibility with EU states amid legal controversy.

Red Sea Security: The EU is moving toward observer status in a Saudi-led maritime coalition as Houthi attacks keep the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively blocked, threatening global shipping and European logistics. Rail & Ports: South Africa’s rail fraud case over the alleged sale of 42km of Eastern Cape state track drags on in court, while Kenya Railways pushes a new Nairobi–Talanta Sports City rail link to ease event congestion. East Africa Energy: Kenya’s Lamu East Africa Oil Refinery groundbreaking draws multiple heads of state, despite local land-right protests and court action. Logistics & Trade: Zimbabwe’s August trade surplus jumps 64.5% on export growth, led by semi-manufactured gold and minerals. Road Safety & Transport Crime: A Zimbabwe court hears a case involving a truck driver accused of kidnapping a passenger and driving while she clung to the car door. Mining Equipment: SANY launches a hybrid mining truck aimed at cutting diesel costs and emissions. Policy & Compliance: South Africa’s diesel refund registration is being modernised on eFiling, requiring farmers to re-register for future claims. GBV Response: South Africa’s Ramaphosa orders a national review of stalled GBV cases, forensic backlogs, and municipal safety audits.

Ports & Logistics Reform (South Africa): Cabinet has approved the Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) to split from Transnet and operate as a standalone landlord, with room to bring in a local development finance institution as a minority equity partner—aimed at speeding logistics reforms and port investment. Air & Regional Connectivity: Guyana says it’s ready to finalise talks with international airlines to use CJIA Terminal 2 as a global hub, including links between West Africa, South America and the Caribbean, plus plans for an aviation training centre. Oil & Infrastructure (East Africa): Aliko Dangote has arrived in Lamu ahead of the East Africa Oil Refinery groundbreaking, while Kenya’s Mbadi says Kenya could increase its refinery stake beyond 10% if neighbours opt out. Energy Costs & Transport Pressure: Reports highlight rising diesel prices in Nigeria and Namibia, warning that higher fuel costs ripple into road freight, food and construction prices. Aviation/Trade: China’s zero-tariff scheme is boosting South Africa’s bulk exports through Port of Ngqura, lifting throughput for commodities like chrome, magnetite, iron ore and corn. Security & Safety (Road/Events): Zimbabwe investigated a fan death at the National Sports Stadium after a police water-cannon truck incident. Gender-Based Violence (Public Safety): South Africa’s Ramaphosa announced time-bound GBVF measures, including a national recovery operation for unresolved cases.

Red Sea shipping shock: A Kenya Ship Agents Association CEO says the Red Sea crisis is forcing reroutes and security pacts, with about 70–80% of regional cargo shifting away from key chokepoints like Bab el-Mandeb and Suez, raising freight and insurance costs. Maritime security escalation: US officials warn Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis and Somalia’s Al-Shabaab are deepening cooperation, potentially expanding Al-Shabaab capabilities and threatening Red Sea and Gulf of Aden trade routes. Dangote refinery legal delay: Kenya’s court ordered a pause on construction of Aliko Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery, with a hearing set for Oct 14 after residents challenged land rights and environmental compliance. Aviation access tightened: The UK introduced a mandatory airport transit visa for nine West African nations including Senegal, even for airside plane changes, complicating regional mobility. Regional trade push: COMESA summit preparations in Zimbabwe are prompting SMEs to plug into regional manufacturing and procurement networks, not just export finished goods. Youth jobs in Tanzania: Tanzania is expanding paid apprenticeships at public institutions (10,000 annually) alongside foreign labour market access to tackle youth unemployment. Air capacity uptick: OAG data shows airlines serving Africa’s top markets scheduled 13.89m seats in Sept 2026, up year-on-year.

Red Sea Shipping Risk: A new assessment warns Bab el-Mandeb is shifting from disruption risk to possible selective or lasting pressure on shipping, with Djibouti and Egypt most exposed and Ethiopia hit indirectly via the Djibouti corridor. Humanitarian Evacuation: The ICRC evacuated 161 people from Ethiopia’s conflict-torn Tigray to Afar by bus, including aviation and AU monitors, as tensions rise. Ethiopia Security Spillover: Ethiopia’s army alleges Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt back rebels as fighting spreads and TPLF-linked forces capture strategic towns in Afar. Port & Trade Infrastructure: Nigeria’s Ogun State says construction on the $7bn Gateway Deep Sea Port with DP World will start in November, targeting near-completion in 2.5 years. Road Corridor Deal: Morocco and Mauritania signed a framework to rehabilitate and expand the El Guerguerat–Nouakchott road, strengthening a North-West Africa land corridor. Aviation Demand: FAAN says Nigeria’s passenger market is growing fastest in Africa, with 18.8m passengers in 2025 and rising seat capacity into 2026. Logistics Digitisation: Ricoh highlights how digital proof-of-delivery and document trails can speed compliance and payment in African logistics. ASF Controls: Cebu tightens African swine fever controls, adding checkpoints and restricting pork sourcing to curb spread.

Port & Refining Push (Kenya): Kenya’s Port of Lamu received heavy machinery for Dangote’s East Africa refinery as President Ruto prepares to ground-break the $16bn project, aimed at boosting regional fuel supply via the LAPSSET corridor. Maritime Security (Liberia–India): Liberia and India launched a UN-backed “Group of Friends” on safety and security of shipping and seafarers, linking crew protection to Liberia’s flag and seafarer workforce interests. Road & Traffic Disruption (Kenya): Nairobi’s KURA ordered a temporary closure of the Mlolongo–Kamulu Quarry Road (Oct 1–Dec 1, 2026) with diversion routes, while extending another Eldoret Road shutdown. Gas & CNG Expansion (Nigeria): Ardova’s consortium agreed to buy 100% of Powergas, expanding CNG compression and road-based “virtual pipeline” distribution with plans for new refuelling sites. Ports Modernisation (Nigeria): FG approved upgrades for Onne, Rivers, Delta and Calabar ports to decongest Lagos and improve cargo handling and turnaround times. Aviation Capacity Debate (Nigeria): Experts questioned FAAN’s 18.8m passenger growth claim, arguing it covers 23 federal airports and needs stronger benchmarking against major African hubs. Clean Fuels & Air Quality (South Africa): Research warns outdated vehicle emission standards are driving severe pollution harms, urging emission updates alongside the July 2027 Clean Fuels Two rollout. Industrial Policy (South Africa): dtic called for coordinated interventions across the stainless steel value chain, including a Steel Roadmap focus on beneficiation and exports.

Nigeria Port Decongestion: Nigeria’s federal government approved the modernisation and upgrade of Onne, Rivers, Delta and Calabar ports to ease pressure on Lagos and improve cargo handling and turnaround times. Kenya Refinery Logistics: Kenya Ports Authority received the MV Da Yang carrying about 2,930 tonnes of heavy machinery for the Dangote East Africa Refinery in Lamu ahead of a Sept. 30 groundbreaking. Djibouti Energy Hub: Djibouti began building a 375,000 m³ petroleum terminal in Damerjog with near-5 million tonnes annual processing capacity to strengthen fuel logistics for Ethiopia. Ghana Aviation Upgrade: Ghana and Boeing discussed reviving the national airline and exploring a regional MRO hub to build maintenance capacity across West Africa. Ethiopia Connectivity Push: Ethiopia highlighted UNGA priorities around sea access and regional integration, alongside a new Ethiopia–Djibouti refined products pipeline plan. Road Safety & Disruption: Kohima DDMA reviewed post-monsoon road damage, including sinking sections affecting traffic, with repairs planned after monsoon. Cost of Living (Transport Impact): Nigeria’s Atiku renewed calls to raise the N70,000 minimum wage, arguing fuel and transport costs have crushed purchasing power. Security Shock: South Africa reported mass shootings at entertainment venues, with investigations underway.

Maritime & logistics: Etihad Rail launched a new Abu Dhabi–Fujairah freight link, connecting the capital’s industrial zone to the Indian Ocean port via a 200km rail route, with direct booking for containers to the industrial clearance point. Regional trade corridors: A DP World report says the Middle East is positioning itself as a “connected trade corridors” hub, building resilience around ports, inland links and digital coordination as Red Sea and Hormuz risks disrupt traditional routes. Fuel policy & transport costs: Nigeria’s fuel subsidy debate heats up after Edo State Governor Monday Okpebholo and others argue subsidy reintroduction is impractical; Nasarawa Governor Abdullahi Sule says petrol import logistics and demurrage delays would worsen costs and corruption risks. Road & border disruption: South Africans are urged to watch Mozambique again as renewed unrest threatens the Maputo–South Africa corridor for trucks. Safety & weather: South Africa issued severe weather warnings—thunderstorms, damaging winds and extreme fire danger—warning of impacts on travel and ports. Security & crime: South African police launched a manhunt after 17 people were killed in a tavern shooting near Johannesburg; separate reports also point to a growing serial-killer fear after more women’s bodies were found. Aviation & seafarers: A report highlights the deportation of Filipino cruise ship workers under a US crackdown, raising concerns for global seafarer mobility.

Port & Energy Logistics: Kenya’s Port of Lamu received the first heavy-machinery cargo for the Dangote East Africa Refinery—2,930 tonnes on MV Da Yang—ahead of a planned September 30 groundbreaking, with KPA framing Lamu as a future regional crude and fuel gateway. Maritime Risk & Trade Costs: Houthi control around Perim and Mokha is pushing up Red Sea freight costs for Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor, with higher war-risk insurance and diversions hitting landed prices. Rail & Corridor Capacity: Angola’s Benguela Railway (CFB) plans to recover 100 carriages by 2027 to boost passenger and small-cargo service between Lobito and Luau. Road Freight Health: Engen’s Transport Month drive will offer free health screenings for truck drivers at 28 truck stops and selected 1-stops starting October 19, after 1,500 screenings last year. Agri Inputs Controversy: Uganda’s “free” fertilizer rollout under MAAIF is under fire as farmers question whether they must pay Shs54,000 per 50kg bag and challenge allocation and supplier quality. Aviation & Connectivity: Ghana’s airline revival gets a boost after talks with Boeing, with plans for an aviation ecosystem and possible MRO hub to strengthen West Africa’s air and logistics links. Security & Training: France trained Ghana Police CTU personnel in counter-terrorism operations, stressing that certification isn’t capability.

Oil & Energy Logistics: Aliko Dangote says his Lamu refinery will generate 1,000MW of power, with 500MW sold to Kenya—positioning the project as a regional fuel and investment gateway. Aviation & Airport Management: South Africa’s ACSA appoints Siphamandla Mthethwa as incoming CEO from November 2026, after a period of acting leadership. Road Safety: Delhi’s “Helmet Wearing–Consequences” campaign earns an international honour at World Safety 2026, spotlighting safer two-wheeler travel. Rail & Manufacturing: Texmaco plans to manufacture locomotive and freight rolling-stock components in Bengal for South African orders, aiming to sustain supply for 15 years. Maritime & Trade: Ghana hosts a summit to strengthen maritime security using women’s leadership, while regional shipping regulation remains a focus for safer corridors. Fuel Prices & Transport Costs: Diesel price pressure is rising faster than crude, squeezing trucking, agriculture, construction and manufacturing. Health & Biosecurity for Supply Chains: Foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in Namibia raise uncertainty for livestock movement and customary slaughter, with legal challenges over nationwide scope. Safety Incident: A Congolese army plane crash in Kwango kills at least 14, prompting an investigation into the cause.

Fuel Logistics Upgrade: Ethiopia and Djibouti, with Dangote, plan a 120-km refined products pipeline (Damerjog–Dewele) to cut tanker-truck dependence, ease corridor congestion and lower delivery costs. Maritime Security & Costs: Saudi Red Sea shipping risk is rising as Houthi pressure and Bab el-Mandeb uncertainty lift freight and war-risk premiums, while UN Security Council condemnation highlights the growing threat to navigation. Airspace Disruption: Airlines are rerouting flights to avoid Middle East war zones, pushing up travel costs and shifting passenger flows toward Asian hubs. Regional Instability: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray threatens another spillover cycle across the Horn, with telecom disruptions reported. Trade & Ports: South Africa’s Transnet begins steps to expand manganese export capacity, while Ghana outlines plans to grow port infrastructure and strengthen its maritime sector. Tourism Spend Gap: Mpumalanga attracts millions of visitors but tourism leaders say most spending leaks out, limiting jobs and enterprise growth. Identity & Digital Trust: Seamfix calls for trusted identity systems across Africa after highlighting large gaps in access to secure IDs.

Ethiopia–Djibouti Energy Corridor: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Dangote Group launched a $660m Damarjog–Dewele refined petroleum pipeline, including a 120km multiproduct line and large storage, aimed at cutting fuel transport costs and boosting regional energy security. Nigeria Port Push: President Tinubu backed Ogun State’s $7bn-plus Gateway Deep Seaport and Blue Marine SEZ with DP World, promising regulatory clarity and faster movement from deals to delivery. Aviation & Logistics Signals: Morocco’s Armed Forces began planning for African Lion 2027, coordinating land, air and maritime training across multiple hubs—an operational logistics boost for the region. South Africa Rates Hit Transport Costs: The SARB raised the repo rate to 7.25%, warning of higher borrowing costs as fuel and services inflation keep pressure on households. Cocoa Supply Watch: West Africa dryness lifted cocoa prices in London and New York, with traders watching Ivory Coast output and shipment pace. Market Pulse (Nigeria): NGX shares surged on Sept. 24, lifting market cap by N622bn in a high-volume session.